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Prognosis for myalgic encephalomyelitis and chronic fatigue syndrome
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=== Follow-up studies === In one of the first extensive studies on the prognosis of ME/CFS, [[Daniel Peterson|Peterson]] et al. studied 65 patients who fulfilled the [[Holmes criteria]] after a one-year follow up. Though 40% reported improvement, none of the patients considered themselves recovered.<ref name="Peterson1991">{{Cite journal | last = Peterson | first = P. K. | last2 = Schenck | first2 = C.H. | last3 = Sherman | first3 = R. | date = May 1991 | title = Chronic fatigue syndrome in Minnesota|url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1861659|journal=Minnesota Medicine|volume=74|issue=5|pages=21–26|issn=0026-556X|pmid=1861659}}</ref> Similar results were reported by an [[Australia|Australian]] team in 1994. They followed up on 103 patients for a mean of 3.2 years. Although the majority reported improvement, less than 6% had completely recovered.<ref name="Wilson1994">{{Cite journal | last = Wilson | first = A. | last2 = Hickie | first2 = I. | last3 = Lloyd | first3 = A. | last4 = Hadzi-Pavlovic | first4 = D. | last5 = Boughton | first5 = C. | last6 = Dwyer | first6 = J. | last7 = Wakefield | first7 = D. | date = 1994-03-19 | title = Longitudinal study of outcome of chronic fatigue syndrome|url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8142830|journal=BMJ (Clinical research ed.)|volume=308|issue=6931 | pages = 756–759|issn=0959-8138|pmc=2539669|pmid=8142830|quote= | authorlink3 = Andrew Lloyd | authorlink4 = | authorlink5 = |via=}}</ref> Two years later, a [[Netherlands|Dutch]] research team from Nijmegen published results for their large sample of 246 ME/CFS patients. After a 1.5 year follow-up only 3% said they had recovered and only 17% reported improvement.<ref name="Vercoulen1996">{{Cite journal | last = Vercoulen | first = J.H. | last2 = Swanink | first2 = C.M. | last3 = Fennis | first3 = J.F. | last4 = Galama | first4 = J.M. | last5 = van der Meer | first5 = J.W. | last6 = Bleijenberg | first6 = G. | date = May 1996 | title = Prognosis in chronic fatigue syndrome: a prospective study on the natural course|url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8778251|journal=Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry|volume=60|issue=5 | pages = 489–494|issn=0022-3050|pmid=8778251|quote= | author-link = Jan Vercoulen|via= | authorlink6 = Gijs Bleijenberg}}</ref> One of the first reports on prognosis using the [[Fukuda criteria]] was published by Saltzstein et al. Because they studied ME/CFS patients in primary care, recovery rates were generally higher, around 20%.<ref name="Saltzstein1998">{{Cite journal | last = Saltzstein | first = B. J. | last2 = Wyshak | first2 = G. | last3 = Hubbuch | first3 = J.T. | last4 = Perry | first4 = J.C. | date = Sep 1998 | title = A naturalistic study of the chronic fatigue syndrome among women in primary care|url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9788031|journal=General Hospital Psychiatry|volume=20|issue=5|pages=307–316|issn=0163-8343|pmid=9788031}}</ref> In 2017, [[Simon Collin|Collin]] & [[Esther Crawley|Crawley]] studied the prognosis of 418 ME/CFS patients who had been treated in a [[United Kingdom|British]] ME/CFS centre and diagnosed according to the [[NICE guidelines|NICE criteria]]. Two and a half years later less than 6% reported they no longer suffered from ME/CFS and 30% claimed their health had deteriorated.<ref name="Collin2017">{{Cite journal | last = Collin | first = Simon M. | last2 = Crawley | first2 = Esther| date = Jul 14, 2017 | title = Specialist treatment of chronic fatigue syndrome/ME: a cohort study among adult patients in England | url =https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28709432|journal=BMC health services research|volume=17|issue=1 | pages = 488|doi=10.1186/s12913-017-2437-3|issn=1472-6963|pmc=5513420|pmid=28709432|quote= | author-link = Simon Collin | author-link2 = Esther Crawley|via=}}</ref> All of the aforementioned studies used different diagnostic criteria – the [[Holmes criteria|Holmes]], Australian,<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/bitstream/handle/10072/55530/87161_1.pdf | title = The adoption of chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis case definitions to assess prevalence: a systematic review | last= Johnston | first = Samantha | authorlink=Samantha Johnston | last2 = Brenu | authorlink2 = Ekua Brenu | date = 2013 | website = griffith.edu.au|publisher=Annals of Epidemiology | page = 3|doi=10.1016/j.annepidem.2013.04.003|archive-url=|archive-date=|access-date=|quote=The Australian definition released in 1990 [2],included the same requirements for fatigue, accompanied by neuropsychiatric symptoms such as short term memory loss and difficulties concentrating. | authorlink3 = Donald Staines | authorlink4 = Sonya Marshall-Gradisnik | first2 = Ekua | last3 = Staines | first3 = Donald | last4 = Marshall-Gradisnik | first4 = Sonya}}</ref> [[Oxford criteria|Oxford]], [[Fukuda criteria|Fukuda]] and [[NICE guidelines|NICE criteria]] respectively – but reported similar poor outcomes, with only a tiny minority of ME/CFS reaching full recovery.
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